Technological singularity

   

In futurology, a technological singularity is a predicted point in the development of a civilization at which technological progress accelerates beyond the ability of present-day humans to fully comprehend or predict. The Singularity is sometimes used more specifically to refer to the advent of smarter-than-human intelligence on Earth, and the cascading levels of technological progress assumed to follow. This article primarily focuses on these definitions.

An alternative, and conceptually distinct, definition describes the Singularity as the culmination of a telescoping process of accelerating computation taking place in the Universe since the beginning of life on Earth.

Whether a singularity is likely to occur on Earth at some point in the future is a somewhat controversial matter.

Overview of the Singularity

Early conceptions

Although commonly believed to have originated within the last two decades, the concept of a technological singularity actually dates all the way back to the 1950s:

"One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue." -- Stanislaw Ulam, May 1958, referring to a conversation with John von Neumann

This quote has been several times taken out of context and falsely attributed to von Neumann himself, almost certainly due to von Neumann's widespread fame and influence.

In 1965, statistician I. J. Good described a concept even more similar to today's meaning of singularity, in that it included in it the advent of superhuman intelligence:

"Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make."

The Vingean Singularity

The concept of a technological singularity as it is known today is largely credited to mathematician and author Dr. Vernor Vinge. Vinge began speaking on his "singularity" concept in the 1980s, and collected his thoughts into the first article on the topic in 1993, with the essay "Technological Singularity" (http://www.ugcs.caltech.edu/~phoenix/vinge/vinge-sing.html). Since then, it has been the subject of several futurist and science fiction stories/writings.

Vinge's essay contains the following frequently-quoted statement: "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended."

Vinge's technological singularity is commonly misunderstood to mean technological progress rising to infinity, as happens in a mathematical singularity. Actually, the term was chosen as metaphor from physics rather than mathematics: as we approach the Singularity, models of the future become less reliable, just as conventional models of physics break down as one approaches a gravitational singularity.

The Singularity is often seen as the end of human civilization and the birth of a new one. In his essay, Vinge asks why the human era should end, and argues that humans will likely be transformed in the process of the Singularity to a higher form of intelligent existence. After the creation of a superhuman intelligence, according to Vinge, people will necessarily be a lower lifeform in comparison to it.

Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns

In his essay, The Law of Accelerating Returns (http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1), Ray Kurzweil proposes a generalization of Moore's law that forms the basis of many people's beliefs regarding the Singularity. Moore's law describes an exponential growth pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Kurzweil extends this to include technologies from far before integrated circuits to future forms of computation not yet invented. He believes that the exponential growth of Moore's law will continue beyond the use of integrated circuits into technologies that will lead to the Singularity.

The law described by Ray Kurzweil has in many ways altered the public's perception of Moore's law. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's law" to describe the ideas put forth by Kurzweil, although it is technically incorrect.

Asymptotic growth curves

Some speculate that an even more rapid increase in technological sophistication will come with the development of superhuman intelligence, either by directly enhancing existing human minds (perhaps with cybernetics), or by building artificial intelligences. These superhuman intelligences would presumably be capable of inventing ways to enhance themselves even faster, leading to a feedback effect that would quickly surpass preexisting intelligences.

Simply having a human-equivalent artificial intelligence may yield this effect, if Kurzweil's law continues indefinitely. At first, supposedly, such an intelligence would be equal to a human. Eighteen months later, it is twice as fast. Three years later, it is four times as fast, and so on. But because the design of computers themselves is done by accelerated AIs, every next step would take roughly eighteen subjective months and proportionally less real time with each step. Assuming Kurzweil's law continues to apply unchanged, every next step would take exactly half as much time. In just three years (36 months = 18 + 9 + 4.5 + 2.25 + ...) the computer speed would, theoretically, reach infinity. This example is largely illustrative, however, and most futurologists would agree that one cannot assume that Kurzweil's law will remain true even up until the Singularity, let alone if it will remain true literally forever, as would be required to produce truly infinite intelligence in this way.

Types of Singularity technologies

Singularitarians have hypothesized a wide range of possible technologies that might play a role in bringing about the Singularity. The order of the arrival of these technologies is often disputed, and of course some will expedite the invention of others, some are dependant on the invention of others, etc. There exist many disputes between the predictions of various Singularitarians, but the following shows some of the most common themes among them.

Artificial intelligence

An artificial intelligence capable of recursively improving itself far beyond human intelligence would most likely mark the beginning of a technological singularity. This type of intelligence is known as a seed AI. Only one of such intelligences would be needed to bring about the Singularity, and it is a common opinion among Singularitarians that the creation of seed AI is the most likely means by which humanity will reach the Singularity. Much of the work of Singularity Institute is built upon this belief.

Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology is not a separate mechanism for reaching the Singularity, but rather a tool that AI or humans will likely utilize in the future. The potential dangers of molecular nanotechnology are widely known even outside of Singularitarian and transhumanist communities, and many Singularitarians consider human-controlled nanotechnology to be one of the most significant existential risks facing humanity. For this reason, they often believe that nanotechnology should be preceded by seed AI, and that nanotechnology should remain unavailable to pre-Singularity society.

This belief is not universal, however. Others advocate efforts to create molecular nanotechnology, believing that nanotechnology can be made safe for pre-Singularity use or can expedite the arrival of a beneficial singularity.

Pre-Singularity technologies

Other technologies, while not likely to cause the Singularity themselves, can be regarded as signs of levels of technological advancement that may precipitate the coming Singularity. One of the most anticipated of these technologies for some Singularitarians is the possibility of human intelligence enhancement.

Direct brain-computer interfaces may potentially improve an individual's memory, computational capacity, communication abilities, and knowledge base. A more traditional human-computer interfaces may also be seen as intelligence augmenting improvements: traditional expert systems, computer systems recognizing and predicting human patterns of behavior, speech and handwriting recognition software, etc. It is expected that such interfaces will become more prevalent and immersive as we approach the Singularity.

Intelligence enhancement through novel chemical drugs and genetic engineering may also become a possibility for existing humans, beyond that which is provided by modern nootropics. Newborn babies may be given genetic intelligence enhancements as well (See genetic engineering).

Advanced technologies

Although seed AI and nanotechnology are widely regarded as the technologies most likely to bring about the Singularity, others have speculated about the possibility of other advanced technologies arriving before the Singularity. These technologies, while unlikely, are often used by some Singularitarians (such as Ray Kurzweil) as a "proof" of the Singularity -- even if seed AI and molecular nanotechnology are not invented within the coming century, other technologies may potentially bring about the Singularity.

Mind uploading, for example, is an alternative means of creating an artificial intelligence -- instead of programming an intelligence, it would instead be bootstrapped by an existing human intelligence. The level of nanotechnological sophistication needed to nondestructively (or even destructively) scan the human brain at the resolutions needed for a mind upload makes mind uploading in the pre-Singularity world seem unlikely, however. The amount of raw computer processing power and understanding of cognitive science needed is also substantial.

Others have speculated that a sufficiently complex computer network may spontaneously "wake up" as an intelligent entity. AI researchers might use the vastly improved computing resources of the future to create artificial neural networks so large and powerful they become generally intelligent. Advocates of Friendly artificial intelligence see this as "brute-forcing" the problem of creating AI, and likely to produce unacceptably dangerous forms of artificial intelligence.

Post-Singularity technologies

Singularity speculations often concern the possibilities for post-Singularity supercomputers. Some researchers claim that even without quantum computing, using advanced nanotechnology, matter could be organized so that a gram of matter could simulate a million years of a human civilization per second. Material that has been engineered to have such vast computational capacities is referred to as computronium. Some speculate that entire planets or stars may some day be converted into computronium, creating Jupiter brains or Matrioshka shells.

Criticisms

There exist two main types of critics of the Singularitary: those who question whether the Singularity is likely or even possible, and those who question whether it is safe or desirable.

The likelihood and possibility of the Singularity

Whether the Singularity is likely to actually occur is controversial. It is, of course, speculative that artificial intelligence that exceeds all human cognitive abilities will occur. The claim that Moore's Law will aid in this process is also controversial. Over the past fifty years, computers have increased speed enormously, but practical advances in artificial intelligence research have not yet empirically demonstrated that human-level artificial intelligence is possbible. See the article artificial intelligence for further debate.

The claim that the rate of technological progress is increasing has also been questioned. Detractors of the idea of a technological singularity sometimes refer to it as the "Rapture of the Nerds." The exponential growth of technological progress may become linear or inflected or may begin to flatten into a limited growth curve. What would cause such an event is, of course, unclear at this time.

The desirability and safety of the Singularity

It has been often speculated, in science fiction and elsewhere, that advanced AI is likely to have goals inconsistent with those of humanity and may threaten humanity's existence. It is conceivable, if not likely, that superintelligent AI will simply eliminate the intellectually inferior human race, and humans will be powerless to stop it. This is a major issue concerning both Singularitary advocates and critics, and was the subject of an article by Bill Joy appearing in Wired Magazine, ominously titled Why the future doesn't need us (http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html).

Some critics argue that advanced technologies are simply too dangerous for us to morally allow the Singularity to occur, and advocate efforts to actually stop its arrival. Perhaps the most famous activist for this viewpoint is Theodore Kaczynski, the Unabomber, who wrote in his "manifesto" that AI might enable the upper classes of society to "simply decide to exterminate the mass of humanity". Alternatively, if AI is not created, Kaczynski argues that humans "will have been reduced to the status of domestic animals" after sufficient technological progress has been made. Portions of Kaczynski's writings have been included in both Bill Joy's article and in a recent book by Singularitarian Ray Kurzweil. It should be noted that Kaczynski is not only an anti-Singularitarian, but a Luddite, and many people oppose the Singularity without opposing present-day technology as Luddites do.

Naturally, scenarios such as those described by Kaczynski are regarded as undesirable to advocates of the Singularity as well. Many Singularitarians, however, do not feel they are so likely, and are more optimistic about the future of technology. Others believe that, regardless of the dangers the Singularity poses, it is simply unavoidable -- we must progress technologically because there is just no other path to take.

Advocates of Friendly artificial intelligence, and specifically SIAI, acknowledge that the Singularity is potentially very dangerous and work to make it safer by creating seed AI that will act benevolently towards humans and eliminate existential risks. The theoretical framework of Friendly AI is currently being designed by Singularitarian Eliezer Yudkowsky.

Another viewpoint, although a much less common one, is that AI will eventually dominate or destroy the human race, and that this scenario is desirable. Dr. Prof. Hugo de Garis is most notable for his support of this opinion.

Organizations

The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI), an educational and research nonprofit, was created to work toward safe cognitive enhancement (i.e. a beneficial singularity). They emphasize Friendly Artificial Intelligence, as they believe general-purpose AI is more likely to enhance cognition subsantially before human intelligence can be significantly enhanced by neurotechnologies or somatic gene therapy.

The Institute for the Study of Accelerating Change (ISAC), also an educational nonprofit, was formed to attract broad business, scientific and humanist interest in acceleration and singularity studies. They hold an annual conference on multidisciplinary insights in accelerating technological change at Stanford University.

Prominent voices

The Singularity in fiction and modern culture

In addition to the original stories by Vernor Vinge that pioneered early Singularitarian ideas, several other science fiction authors have written stories the involve the Singularity as a central theme. Notable authors include Charles Stross and Greg Egan.

The computer game Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri also features something akin to a singularity, called the 'Ascent to Transcendence', as a major theme within it.

See also

References

External links

nl:technologische singulariteit es:Singularidad tecnológica de:Singularität (Technologie)


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