UK general election, 2005/06

   

2001 election
2005 election

Barring a change in the law, the next general election in the United Kingdom must be held some time before June 30 2006. This election will be for seats in the House of Commons and will therefore also decide which party forms the government. The governing Labour Party, led by Tony Blair, will be looking to secure a third term in office and to retain its large majority. The Conservative Party will be seeking to regain seats captured by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the 1997 election and to replace Labour in government, whilst the Liberal Democrats themselves will hope to make further gains from both sides and to become the Official Opposition.

Under the Constitution of the United Kingdom, dates for general elections are not fixed, and can be called by the government at short notice. Although one is not required to be held until 2006, it has been widely speculated that there will be a general election some time in 2005. Media reports in late October of 2004 suggest that Blair is aiming to hold the election in February of 2005. Other reports point to May 5. This date was given on November 24th 2004 in the British newspaper "The Sun", whose political editor Trevor Kavanagh is seen by many as "Mr. Blair's voice in Fleet Street" having correctly predicted the date of the 2001 General Election for June 7th 2001, but this date will not be confirmed until at least March 6th 2005 when Chancellor Gordon Brown holds his fnal Budget of the 2001 - 2005 parliament. It would be unusual (but not unique) for a government with a large majority in the House of Commons to go to the polls less than four years into its term unless it was seeking a mandate for a change in policy or a refreshed public endorsement after some controversy. A government might also call an election sooner than is conventional if it feared that holding the election later would adversely affect its chances of winning. If the government does call an early election, it will be the first since February 1974. Media speculation should be taken for what it is, speculation. Even where the media accurately reports current government thinking, that thinking or the relevant circumstances may change. Previous reports in the media had claimed that the government was planning to call a general election in October 2004.

In Scotland, subject to legislation being passed by the Westminster Parliament to break the linkage between Westminster Parliament constituencies and Scottish Parliament constituencies, this election will mark a reduction of the number of constituencies for the Westminster Parliament - Scotland is currently overrepresented in the Westminster Parliament on a per capita basis, and its MPs will be cut from 72 to 59. This leglisation was passed in September 2004 and will be enacted at the next election.

In Northern Ireland the election looks likely to be dominated by a battle between the Ulster Unionist Party and the Democratic Unionist Party to be the province's largest party in parliament. Although the former won more MPs at the last General Election, defections have since reversed the position. Other elections in the province have shown both a shift in votes towards the DUP but also a collapse of support for the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland which may work in the UUP's favour. In the Nationalist community, the election battle between Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party looks set to dominate. Other elections have shown a clear shift in support from the SDLP to Sinn Féin and if this is duplicated then some constituencies will change hands between the two, reducing the number of MPs who vote in Westminster. This is because Members of Parliament cannot formally take their seats until they swear alliegence to the Queen (which Sinn Féin refuse to do).

Composition of the House of Commons

The House of Commons following the 2005 general election will contain 646 MPs (down from the current 659 due to the boundary changes mentioned above). This means that the results of the last election must be adjusted before they can be used as a guide to the parties' performance. The calculations (based on the 13 Scottish seats that will disappear; also ignoring defections and by-elections) suggest that the old House of Commons would be comprised thus:

Labour overall majority of 160

In most parliamentary votes the SDLP tend to side with the Labour Party (thus boosting their majority by 6), and when you add in the non-presence of the Sinn Féin members, Labour's majority is (in theory) as high as 170. But in most practical terms, Labour's majority is seen as 160.

The following are the benchmarks that will decide who wins the election:

  • Any swing to Labour or a Conservative swing of less than 6.5%: Labour majority (Blair Prime Minister for another term)
  • 6.5% to 8% Conservative swing: Labour hung parliament (Blair PM)
  • 8% to 9.5% Conservative swing: Conservative hung parliament (Howard leader of the largest grouping in parliament and may require UUP and DUP support to form a majority)
  • Over 9.5% Conservative swing: Conservative majority (Howard Prime Minister and the first Conservative election win for 13 years)

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