Ukrainian presidential election, 2004

The presidential election held in November 2004 in Ukraine was mostly a political battle between Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and former Prime Minister and opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. The election was held in a highly charged atmosphere, with allegations of media bias, intimidation and even an alleged poisoning of Yushchenko. According to official results, announced on November 23, the election was won by Yanukovych, but Yushchenko and his supporters, as well as many international observers, have denounced the election as rigged. This led to a serious political crisis, widespread acts of civil disobedience, dubbed "Orange Revolution", and perhaps even a threat of civil war.

The incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych

Viktor Yushchenko, opposition leader.

Candidates

The two major contenders were Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko. Yanukovych, Ukrainian prime minister since 2002, was supported by the out-going President Leonid Kuchma, as well as the Russian Federation and its president, Vladimir Putin.

Yushchenko on the other hand, was considered more pro-western, and enjoyed the support from the European Union and the United States.

In total, there were 26 candidates to the presidency. The full list in alphabetical order is as follows:

• Oleksander Bazilyuk
• Bohdan Boyko
• Mykhailo Brodsky
• Grigoriy Chernish
• Leonid Chernovetsky
• Andriy Chornovil
• Igor Dushin
• Mykola Grabar
• Anatoliy Kinah
• Sergiy Komisarenko
• Vitaly Kononov
• Dmytro Korchinsky
• Roman Kozak
• Vladislav Krivobokov
• Oleksander Moroz
• Volodimir Nechiporuk
• Oleksander Omelchenko
• Mykola Rogozhynsky
• Oleksander Rzhavsky
• Petro Simonenko
• Nataliya Vitrenko
• Vasil Volga
• Olaksander Yakovenko
• Viktor Yanukovych
• Viktor Yushchenko
• Yuriy Zbitnyev

Preliminary vote

First-round voters in Kamyanets'-Podils'kyi, October 31, 2004

The preliminary vote of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was held on October 31, 2004, to elect a successor to Leonid Kuchma. No candidate held a 50 percent majority, so another vote was held on November 21 to choose between Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and former prime minister Viktor Yushchenko.

Results of the preliminary vote held 2004-10-31. A runoff election, to decide between Yushchenko and Yanukovych, was held 2004-11-21.

27,897,559 voters participated. 1.98 percent of voters didn't choose a candidate.

Geographic distribution of votes showed a clear east-west division of Ukraine whose roots are rooted deeply in country's past. The western, mostly agricultural part, which roughly corresponds with the former territories of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 17th century, which is considered more pro-Polish and pro-Western, with the population mostly Ukrainian-speaking and Greek Catholic (Uniate), voted predominantly for Yushchenko. The industrial eastern part, including the Crimean Autonomous Republic, where the links with Russia and the Orthodox Church are much stronger, and which contains many ethnic Russians and fewer Ukrainians, is a Yanukovych stronghold.

Geographic distribution of votes

Runoff

In the November 21 runoff, Ukraine's electoral commission declared Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner. According to electoral commission data, Yanukovych had 49.42 percent of the votes cast and Yushchenko had 46.69 percent of the votes cast. Viktor Yushchenko called for supporters to protest "the total falsification of the vote." The city council in the capital Kiev, together with the city councils of four major cities in Western Ukraine, including Lviv and Ivano-Frankivs'k, have refused to recognize the official results and have declared that Yushchenko has won the election.

Post-election developments

The initial vote produced a near draw: official figures gave Yanukovych 39.32 percent and Yushchenko 39.87 percent of the votes cast. As no candidate reached the 50% margin required for outright victory, a second round of voting was held on November 21. Although a 75 percent turnout was recorded in the initial vote, observers reported many irregularities, particularly in the regions where Yushchenko's support was seen to be strongest. It was unclear how much of an impact this had on the result.

In the November 21 runoff, Ukraine's electoral commission declared Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner. According to electoral commission data, Yanukovych had 49.42 percent of the votes cast and Yushchenko had 46.69 percent of the votes cast. Observers for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said the run-off vote "did not meet international standards" and U.S. senior election observer, Senator Richard Lugar, called it "concerted and forceful program of election day fraud." Viktor Yushchenko called for supporters to protest "the total falsification of the vote." City councils of four major cities in Western Ukraine, including Lviv and Ivano-Frankivs'k, refused to recognize the official results and declared that Yushchenko had won the election.

Participating in nationwide demonstrations following the election, supporters of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych hold his portrait as they attend a meeting at a plant in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, November 24, 2004. Yanukovych's base of support is in the eastern industrial heartland of Ukraine, especially the eastern coal-mining region of Donetsk, from where Yanukovych hails.

On November 22, tens of thousands of Yushchenko supporters, including members of the Pora student movement, protested in Independence Square in Kyiv. Some of them set up tents in the square. Late that night, Yushchenko told supporters to stay in the square overnight to keep the tent encampment safe from security forces, who wanted to dismantle it.

"We have received information that authorities want to destroy our tent city at 3 a.m. ... At two o'clock there should be more of us than now," Yushchenko said, speaking to supporters at Kiev's Independence Square. "We must defend every chestnut tree, every tent. We must show to the authorities we are here for a long time... There must be more and more of us here every hour."

On November 23 approximately 100,000 supporters of Yushchenko gathered in Kiev awaiting the session of Parliament, hoping that it would discuss the accusations of fraud and come to a solution. Thousands of people were en route to the capital from different regions, and Yanukovych shut down all major roads and airports to prevent any threat from Yushchenko supporters. Similar gatherings of protesters took place in other major cities, especially Lviv.

In a session of parliament boycotted by supporters of Yanukovych, Yushchenko took the oaths of president, though the parliament lacked the quorum to do this legally.

On November 24, rumours circulated that Yanukovych and Yushchenko had agreed to hold talks to negotiate over the disputed election results; this was later denied, with the government opposition refusing to meet Yanukovych. Protests continued into a third day in Kiev after an appeal by Yushchenko for their continuation. More supporters of both sides arrived at the city from outlying areas of the country. Riot police are protecting the election commission building.

An official announcement of the final result was expected at 14:00 UTC, but this was postponed. Yanukovych was later officially declared to be the winner.

On the same day, Yushchenko urged his supporters to engage in a series of nationwide general strikes – an "Orange Revolution," after his campaign color – with the intent of crippling the government and forcing Yanukovych to concede defeat.

On November 25, the Ukrainian Supreme Court stopped the publication of the election results, postponing it until after examination of the appeals by Yushchenko.

As of November 26, the state run TV channel UT1 has joined the side of the protestors, saying "We're not lying anymore."

International influence and reaction

Many commentators saw the elections as being influenced by outside powers, notably the United States, the European Union and Russia, with the EU and the U.S. backing Yushchenko (sending former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Senator John McCain to visit with Yushchenko), and Russian president Vladimir Putin publicly backing Yanukovych. In the media the two candidates were contrasted, with Yushchenko representing both the pro-Western Kiev residents as well as the rural Ukrainians, whereas Yanukovych represents the Eastern, pro-Russian industrial laborers. The United States and Europe feared that a Yanukovych win would halt the Ukraine's move toward integration with Europe (especially as regards any future accession to NATO or the EU). Russia feared that without a close relationship with Ukraine its ability to develop and prosper would be severely limited, and that the Ukraine could develop into a mildly hostile neighbor, much like the Baltic states have become since their integration into NATO and the EU. Putin has offered Ukraine an economic union and signed legislation permitting visa-less travel between the two countries in an attempt to underscore the potential relationship that would be available.

Russia

President Vladimir Putin had twice visited Ukraine before the election to show his support for Yanukovych and congratulated him on his victory before official election results.

Prominent hardliners in Russia cast the election as opposition to renewed Western imperialism. Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, for example, blames the West for interfering in the situation in Ukraine in the run-up to the October 31 presidential election:

"I have been in Kiev for a third day and I see for myself that the numerous actions of local opposition bear the earmarks of those groups that at different times tried to destabilize Prague, Budapest and Bucharest - the earmarks of U.S. special services." [1] (http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/28.html?id_issue=10715524)

European Union

The EU has made it clear that they would not recognize the results of the election. All 25 member countries of the EU have summoned their ambassadors from Ukraine in order to register a sharp protest against what is seen as election fraud.

The European Union has disputed the election process in Ukraine, with European Commission President José Durão Barroso warning of consequences if there is no review of the election. During a meeting between Putin and EU officials in the Hague, the Russian president opposed the EU reaction by saying that he was "deeply convinced that we have no moral right to push a big European state to any kind of massive disorder."

Among EU member states, Ukraine's western neighbors were most concerned about the situation in Ukraine. In Poland, Ukraine's largest western neighbor, politicians, the media and ordinary citizens enthusiastically supported Yushchenko and opposed the election fraud. Polish deputies to the European Parliament have called for giving Ukraine the prospect of future EU membership provided the country obeyed democratic standards. The idea of Ukraine's membership in the EU is, however, less popular among western EU members, who are more interested in the integration process with Turkey.

On November 25, former Ukrainian foreign minister and a close collaborator of Yushchenko, Boris Tarasyuk delivered a speech before the Polish Sejm, urging Poland not to recognize the election result and help solve the political crisis. On the same day former Polish President Lech Wałęsa went to Kiev to publicly express his support for a democratic Ukraine. On November 26 Polish incumbent President Aleksander Kwaśniewski, Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus and European Union's foreign policy chief Javier Solana came to Kiev on Kuchma's request in order to mediate between Yanukovych and Yushchenko.

United States

The United States government has also decided not to recognize the election, and has expressed dissatisfaction with the current situation — the outgoing US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, quite unequivocally stated that the result announced could not be accepted as legitimate by the US. Prominent Cold War hawk Zbigniew Brzezinski casts the election as an opposition to renewed Russian imperialism:

"Russia is more likely to make a break with its imperial past if the newly independent post-Soviet states are vital and stable. Their vitality will temper any residual Russian imperial temptations. Political and economic support for the new states must be an integral part of a broader strategy for integrating Russia into a cooperative transcontinental system. A sovereign Ukraine is a critically important component of such a policy, as is support for such strategically pivotal states as Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan."

External links

• Central Election Commission Official Site (http://www.cvk.gov.ua/wp300pt001f01=501) (Ukrainian language site)
• Elections in Ukraine (http://www.elections-ua.org) (pro-Yanukovych)
• European Parliament resolution (http://www2.europarl.eu.int/omk/sipade2?SAME_LEVEL=1&LEVEL=4&NAV=S&LSTDOC=Y&DETAIL=&PUBREF=-//EP//TEXT+TA+P6-TA-2004-0046+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN)
• OSCE Statement (http://www.osce.org/news/show_news.php?id=4547)
• Christian Science Monitor: One election, two Viktors (http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1123/p05s01-woeu.html)
• International Support for Ukrainian Democracy (http://ukrainiandemocracy.serenatamusic.com/)

de:Präsidentschaftswahlen in der Ukraine nl:Verkiezingen in Oekraïne (2004) pl:Wybory prezydenckie na Ukrainie 2004 uk:Вибори Президента України 2004